Peavy Trade A High Risk, High Reward Move For White Sox

On May 21, the Chicago White Sox swung a trade with the San Diego Padres that would dramatically bolster the White Sox post-season chances. They had traded for ace pitcher Jake Peavy, a former Cy Young winner who is one of the best in baseball. An American  League Central title seemed within reach, and only one thing was required to complete the deal. Peavy, who has a no-trade clause in his contract, had to allow the deal to go through. To the surprise of the White Sox, Peavy utilized his right to remain in San Diego. Why would he stay on a losing team in San Diego rather than compete for a division title in Chicago? He had been a Padre his entire career, and picking up and moving his family to a new and unfamiliar city appeared to be a scary proposition. Because of Peavy’s decision, the White Sox were forced to move on. The Padres, meanwhile, were poised to continue talking to teams about Peavy.

Fast forward to June 9, when Peavy landed on the disabled list. He strained a tendon in his right ankle, which seemed to diminish the Padres chances of moving Peavy at the trade deadline. But as the deadline was about to come to a conclusion, the Padres pulled off a shocker. They once again had traded Peavy to the White Sox, only this time Peavy accepted the trade. Chicago sent four pitching prospects to San Diego in exchange. The Padres removed Peavy from the DL before trading him, and the White Sox now have a top-5 pitcher in the game of baseball.

But unlike Roy Halladay, who would have been guaranteed to dominate anywhere had he been traded to, Peavy comes with question marks. He also gives the White Sox an opportunity to greatly improve their rotation. Any way you slice it, the White Sox are taking a big risk. What’s more is that he is still injured, somewhat complicating the White Sox plans. The original prognostication on his return was 12 weeks, and it looks like that will hold true. He could make his White Sox debut in late August or early September. No matter the scenario, the White Sox expect him to be ready for the playoffs. Having Peavy around for the run towards the playoffs would be the ideal scenario, though.

Currently, the White Sox sit 1.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the division. 9 games out of the wild card race, the White Sox only chance of making the playoffs is to win the Central. That’s why having Peavy around for the final month of the season would be great. Not only would he help the team make the playoffs, he would also get to familiarize himself with his new surroundings and get a feel for how things work in Chicago and the American League. If he can’t find a way to return until the postseason, it will be a big hit to the White Sox.

Playing in San Diego his entire career, there were times when Peavy did not get the national recognition he deserved. Sure, he won the Cy Young award in 2007, but the Padres rarely make their way on to national television, and fans therefore don’t get the pleasure of watching Peavy pitch an entire game. In Chicago, he will be watched much more closely, and fans are going to like what they see.

Another downside of playing for the Padres was that Peavy didn’t get a great amount of run support from his teammates. His ERA this season was 3.97, about five points higher than his career average. Record-wise, Peavy went 6-6 before being placed on the DL, another area that can be attributed to playing for a poor team. In Chicago, Peavy will have the benefit of playing with an excellent offense — the White Sox exploded for 14 runs yesterday in a route over the New York Yankees.

Where Peavy will really pay off is in the rotation. Mark Buerhle, of recent perfect game fame, is the N0.1 pitcher, but that could change once Peavy gets healthy. A three-man rotation of Buerhle, Peavy and John Danks has the potential to be one of the best in baseball. In a playoff series, this rotation could give the White Sox an advantage over an opponent that doesn’t have a top-3 that is as strong. Moreover, the addition of Peavy makes the White Sox rotation look even stronger, as Gavin Floyd and Jose Contreras now bookend the rotation. And on top of all of that, Peavy c0uld be a staple of this rotation for a long time; he is signed through 2012, with a team option for 2013. Those are all of the positives, and there seem to be many of them. But Peavy doesn’t come to the South side of Chicago without any risks or concerns.

His health is still a major concern heading into the final two months of the season. If Peavy is unable to return, it would greatly decrease the White Sox chances to make a deep postseason run. With a team that is as talented as the White Sox are offensively, it would be a shame to see them lose because of their rotation. Ankle injuries are tricky though, and there’s no one seems to know for sure just how long it will take him to recover. Some ankle injuries can take a few weeks to recover, but Peavy’s is clearly much more serious. Even if he is able to return and pitch for the White Sox at some point before the playoffs, just how well he will be able to pitch is a big question mark. The positive spin on the injury is that it is to the right ankle and not the left. Had it been to the left, even more concerns would have popped up, since Peavy as a right-hander uses the left ankle to push off in his windup. Though the right ankle is still used in the windup, it’s not going to create as big a problem as the left ankle would. He’ll have to try and return as soon as possible, as the White Sox will need all the help they can get in this pennant race. There’s also consternation that because of Peavy’s unorthodox motion, his shoulder won’t be able to hold up much longer.

Under the worst-case scenario, the White Sox won’t get Peavy at any point this season, missing out on the chance to have him for the playoff run. But under the best-case, Peavy comes back and pitches, helping the White Sox win the Central.

GM Kenny Williams took a risk by making this trade, there’s no doubt about that. If the move pays off, however, Williams and the White Sox will reap the benefits.

In Halladay Sweepstakes, GMs Overvalued Prospects

When Toronto Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi announced to the world that ace right-handed pitcher Roy Halladay was on the trading block, it was assumed that meant Halladay would be leaving Toronto. But the non-waiver trading deadline has come and gone, and Halladay is still a member of the Blue Jays.

A number of teams were rumored to have be interested in acquiring Halladay, who is under contract through 2010. The fact that he is under contract for another season and was on the block is unprecedented. When most players of Halladay’s caliber are traded, it’s because they are going to be free-agents after the current season. Their current team wants to get value for the player, instead of letting him walk without receiving compensation. The Hallady situation was different, as Ricciardi was trying to get the most value possible right now, since Toronto’s leverage will not be as great next season. As a result, the Blue Jays asked for the everything but the kitchen sink, and a deal wasn’t able to get done. The Blue Jays had every right to ask for teams best prospects. Ricciardi wanted to get what Halladay is worth, which is a whole lot.

But teams that were in the market for the best pitcher in all of baseball weren’t necessarily willing to give up everything that Toronto wanted, which is interesting. Halladay would bring a contender a staff ace who is a workhorse — he consistently pitches complete games. On top of that, he has an 11-4 record with Toronto this season and has one of the best earned run averages in the game at 2.68. The 11 wins are impressive playing on a struggling team like the Blue Jays. If he had the opportunity to play for a contending team, there’s no telling what he could do. Moreover, teams would have gotten him at a fairly cheap price for next season of $15.75 million.

A team like the Boston Red Sox could have bolstered their rotation by adding Halladay, and having a 1-2 punch of Josh Beckett and Halladay would be tough for any team to face.  For all of the teams pursuing Halladay, the postseason is where the move would pay off much, because it’s not about just getting to the postseason, it’s about winning in October. Beckett is one of the game’s best in October, and having him as the second pitcher in the rotation would have been a scary proposition for opponents. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, one of the best in baseball at his job, did not want to part with all of the prospects that the Blue Jays were requesting.

The New York Yankees, who have never been afraid to go after the best players in free agency or at the trade deadline, never were heavily involved in the Halladay sweepstakes. Calls between the Blue Jays and Yankees reportedly took place, but the Yankees either didn’t have enough amunition to pull off the deal or simply did not want to unload a number of prospects. However it went down, the big, bad did something very un-Yankees like: they refused to get in a bidding war for the best player available.

As the trading deadline was coming to a close, the Los Angeles Angels made a late push to grab Halladay. The two sides could not reach an agreement, but the Angels did have a lot to offer. Left-handed Pitcher Joe Saunders, shortstop Erick Aybar, third-baseman Brandon Wood and a prospect were reportedly the pieces that the Blue Jays wanted. Angels GM Tony Reagins did not pull the trigger, as Saunders, Wood and Aybar are all on the team’s 25-man roster. The Angels are one of baseball’s best teams offensively, but their pitching has been somewhat of a weakness. Halladay could have been the final piece to their championship puzzle, but the Angels — a team that cherishes prospects — felt that they would have given up too much.

The Philadelphia Phillies were the team most rumored to be in the Halladay discussion when news first emerged that he was on the block. Ricciardi wanted too much for the Phillies liking, as he was asking for left-handed pitcher J.A. Happ, right-handed pitcher Kyle Drabek and two other prospects. Giving up Drabek was out of the question for the Phillies, who desperately needed an ace in the rotation with lefty Cole Hamels struggling mightily this season. On Wednesday, the Phillies traded for last year’s American League Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee, effectively ending their pusuit of Halladay.

All of the teams meantioned had a good chance to land Halladay. They certainly all had the ammunition to pull of the deal, but each GM decided that it wasn’t in the best interests of their teams to pull the trigger. The GMs, however, were way off base in their assertion.

What GMs basically said in not trading for Halladay is that prospects are more important than an ace pitcher. Halladay is a proven commodity who is one of, if not the best at what he does. But GMs instead held on to prospects that may or not pan out as quality players in the majors. And that’s what is so interesting about the way GMs handled this whole situation. They all kept their players that are at least two years away from breaking into the majors, rather than acquiring a superstar in Halladay.

All of the teams that had a shot at landing Halladay are in contention for a World Series title. Getting Halladay easily would have made the team that had acquired him the favorite to win their respective league, and probably the World Series. What it ultimately comes down to is that GMs have overvalued their prospects. In minor league, there are no guarantees. Sure, there are some players who like he sure-fire stars, but there’s no guarantee that the player will seamlessly transition to the major league game. With Halladay, on the other hand, you know what you are getting. There’s no risk, and a very high reward. Is five years down the line more important than winning a championship right now?

In order to look good for not trading for Hallday, GMs better hope that their prized prospects translate into multiple World Series titles. Only then will the decision to not trade for Halladay look somewhat sensible.