USC Is Talented, But Can They Avoid The Letdown?

Every year, Pete Carroll and the USC Trojans are in the national championship picture. The team from Southern California has had three Heisman trophy winners and has won one (some would argue two) national championships during Caroll’s tenure. When discussing talent, USC is always ahead of the bunch, as the school usually has the most first-round picks in the NFL Draft. There’s no question that Caroll and the Trojans have made a case to be college football’s team of the decade.

But over the past few seasons, something strange has taken place in Los Angeles. It’s not that the talent has gone anywhere , as USC continues to boast some of the most talented rosters in the country. And it’s not as if the team has lost any of its swagger — Carroll is always a guy that displays confidence, and it filters down to every single player on his team. What has happened, however, is something that is hard to explain.

The easy part is that USC has been a national title contender each of the past few seasons. Those teams could hang with the best in the country, no doubt about it. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen USC compete for the national title since it’s thrilling loss to Vince Young and the Texas Longhorns at the Rose Bowl in 2006. Instead, USC has been “stuck” with winning the Rose Bowl game every season, defeating the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois and Penn State in the process. The difficult part is that in each of those victories, USC was clearly the better team, and looked like it deserved a shot at playing for the national title. The only problem? The Trojans had suffered a letdown early in the season, all but ending their chances of playing for the biggest game in college football.

In 2006, USC lost on the road to Oregon State in Week 8 of the season. While that game didn’t completely knock them out of contention, losing in their final game of the season to rival UCLA did. 2007 may have been the worst loss of all, when the Trojans lost at home to Stanford. USC was a 41-point favorite in that game, making Stanford’s victory all the more impressive. That loss all but did them in, with the nail in the coffin coming via a loss to a very good Oregon team. And last season, when the Trojans possibly had their best team since 2005, they were upset by Oregon State in Week 5. Not only did the loss stun everyone around the country, but it was the way in which it happened, as USC’s vaunted defense was torched by freshman running back Jacquizz Rogers. Each season, USC was capable of winning the national title, but it didn’t because of one or two major letdowns. Each season, USC defeated the best teams that it faced, but couldn’t come through in games they were expected to win handily. No other team in college football has suffered consecutive letdowns such as these over the course of the last four seasons. Because of those losses, Carroll and the Trojans missed out on the opportunity to compete for the national championship, which they very well could have won.

Before pondering whether USC can avoid the big upset this upcoming season, the question of why the Trojans have suffered letdowns in the past must be answered. Carroll is confident, brash and arrogant — qualities that can be valuable in a head coach, but can also cause trouble. Every time USC has been upset, they were the prohibitive favorites going into the game. Therefore, overconfidence had to be a factor. Carroll’s attitude trickles down to his players, and that attitude is likely what cost them the chances to play for the biggest prize in major college football. They took Oregon State, Stanford and UCLA for granted. The UCLA game may be the most inexcusable considering teams should never take a rivalry game lightly. But no matter how it happened, USC must find a way to avoid it in 2009, because the Trojans, ranked No.4 in preseason polls, are once again legitimate title contenders.

Even though USC lost the majority of its starting defense from 2008, they still have loads of talent on that side of the football, including safety Taylor Mays, who is arguably the best in the country at his position. Offensively, the Trojans have incredible depth at running back, receiver and tight end but must start a first-year quarterback. Whether it will be redshirt sophomore Aaron Corp or true freshman Matt Barkley is in doubt, but USC may not have in 2009 the stability it has had at the position over the years. Both offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and defensive coordinator Nick Holt left for Washington, but Carroll largely controls the defense anyway, and Jeremy Bates is a capable leader of the offense. Clearly, this group has what it takes to be playing for the National Championship game in January.

For USC, it all comes down to avoiding the letdown. As usual, any Pac-10 game against an unranked opponent has the chance to be the game that effectively ends their season. Non-conference games are never a problem, because Carroll and the Trojans love to flex their muscle and the best in the country. Ranked conferences opponents don’t cause trouble, because USC realizes the team has to be good. The Pac-10 will be fairly strong this year, with Cal and Oregon ranked in the top-25, so USC will be tested — but not harmed — all season long. But against a Stanford, ASU, etc., USC is at a greater risk. Pete Carroll may very well be one of the greatest “big game” coaches of all-time. With the exception of the Texas game, USC simply doesn’t lose when it counts the most. Against inferior opponents, though, Carroll doesn’t fare as well. Winning the Rose Bowl every year is a remarkable accomplishment, but the USC fanbase has come to expect national championships from Carroll. Carroll is charismatic and his fun personality attracts recruits from all over the country. It can’t be fun, however, losing to a team you were supposed to clobber. Having a more talented roster than any team in the fledging United Football League is great, but fans want championships.

Carroll certainly doesn’t have anything to worry about in terms of job security, but it’s about time he wins another national title. The only way for that to happen will be for the Trojans to take every opponent seriously, no matter the records and roster. If they don’t, they’ll once again be playing in the Rose Bowl, where Big Ten opponents are no match for the Trojans. Twent years ago, fans would have loved to go to the Rose Bowl every year. In 2009, that doesn’t fly.

Will The BCS Rear Its Ugly Head In 2009?

College football fans despise the Bowl Championship Series, plain and simple. This system for determining college football’s best teams seems unfair, ludicrous and as some have argued, unconstitutional. Using the rankings from the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Harris Interactive Poll and its own rankings, the BCS tells the country which two teams are deserving of playing in the National Championship Game. Almost every season, it seems like the BCS unfairly knocks a team out of contention for the game.

In 2008, Utah was directly affected by the BCS. It was undefeated after the regular season, and some felt that it deserved a title shot. If college football had a playoff, the Utes would have gotten one. Instead, they had to deal with the BCS, which forced them to play in the Sugar Bowl. Utah pulled off a stunning upset over Alabama, which ended up enraging Utah fans even more. All they wanted was a chance to play for the national championship. After the win over Alabama, the Utes finished second in the final Associated Press poll. That set off many discussions from, of all places, Congress about the BCS and how it was being run.

Texas, meanwhile, was indirectly affected by the BCS. See, Texas and Oklahoma finished with the same record in the Big 12 South in ‘08. Both had lost just one game, but only one team could play the winner of the Big 12 South, Missouri, in the Big 12 Championship Game. Incredibly, head-to-head was not the determining factor. Had it been, Texas would have been in great shape considering it beat Oklahoma early in the season. After still being tied following the use of two tiebrakers, the Big 12 was forced to use its third tiebreaker — BCS standings. That’s right, the team that was ranked highest in the standings advanced. That, of course, was Oklahoma, which one the game and advanced to the National Championship Game. Texas, meanwhile, was relegated to playing in the Fiesta Bowl, which it won over Ohio State. But the Longhorns will always feel slighted, because if they had been able to play against Mizzou, they likely would have gone to play Florida rather than Oklahoma.

Utah’s example is much more likely to happen, though, since Texas was in an extremely unique situation. One way or another, however, the BCS always seems to find a way to leave out from the National Championship Game that is extremely deserving. Utah may not have had the best case to play in the title game considering its strength of schedule, but other teams have had great cases. Now the question becomes, will a team be left out in 2009?

The preseason version of the USA Today Coaches Poll was released last week, with the top 4 being Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and USC.

Florida, the defending national champions, figure to be dominate once again this season. The heart and soul of the Gators, Tim Tebow returns to Gainesville looking to win his third national title. Tebow has always been the leader off the field and has been a major contributor on it, but he should have an increased role this year. Percy Harvin, who left for the NFL, was a huge playmaker for the Gators. Jeffrey Demps and/or Bradon James will file the same role as Harvin, but putting up the same numbers will be difficult.

Texas, meanwhile, could be even better than last season. Quarterback Colt McCoy is the most accurate passer in the country, and his running ability makes him a solid dual-threat. He also has the luxury of having wide receiver Jordan Shipley on the outside. Shipley has speed and is as dangerous as anyone wide receiver in the country. McCoy’s accuracy lets him connect often with Shipley, and that will help propel the Longhorns to being one of top teams in the country this season.

Oklahoma got an early Christmas present when last year’s Heisman trophy winner, Sam Bradford, returned. He easily could have gone to the NFL and been the No.1 overall pick in the Draft, but he decided to stay in Norman to try and win the national title that eluded the team last season. Bradford has mastered Oklahoma’s run-and-gun offense so well that the team should have even better stats this season than 2008, which seems nearly impossible. But you better believe it, especially with tight end Jermain Gresham returning as well.

Then there’s USC, a team that always seems to be in the championship mix. Pete Carroll has run of the most consistent programs in the country during his tenure, and the Trojans will be a team to watch in 2009. The loss of quarterback Mark Sanchez could hurt the team somewhat, but Aaron Corp is a solid replacement. Damian Williams is one of the best wide receivers in the country, and his presence will greatly benefit Corp. The Trojans will have to replace a number of defensive starters, but they still have Taylor Mays, who is one of the best safeties in college football.

Sifting out how good each team will be next season is important, because it shows Though it is just a preseason poll, it actually ends up playing a major part in the championship equation, as teams at the top aren’t likely to see a heavy drop in the rankings after a single loss. All 4 teams should be very good in 2009, as evidenced, but two teams are going to be left out. Their could be a number of problems created by the BCS this season.

Let’s say, for example, that three of the four teams mentioned go undefeated. How it will be decided which two play in the Championship Game? All four have solid non-conference schedules, with USC having the toughest matchup against Ohio State in Columbus. Florida doesn’t have an incredibly difficult non-conference schedule, but it does play in the SEC. Texas and Oklahoma will play each other early in the season, which will knock one team out of the race.

And what if a team currently outside the top-5 goes undefeated? It likely won’t matter, because it will be too hard to climb up the ladder to reach the No.1 or 2 ranking. Virginia Tech is ranked No.7 in the preseason poll and has a great chance to go undefeated. Rising to the top will be difficult with juggernauts such as Florida and USC at the top.

It’s all one big mess, and the BCS figures to cause more problems in 2009. But hey, at least the BCS is consistent.

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